Artificial Intelligence and Stock Trading (2024)

Successfully trading in stocks involves not only a thorough analysis of the company's financials, management, price patterns, indicators, etc. but also speculation, which means relying on market sentiments and momentum. Both propositions are very fruitful yet carry high risk, keeping investors and investments always aware of their financial goals and investment strategies while investing. It is now that in our human-ai-augmented universe, with the high capital investments in AI development and deployment in our banking industry and its successful run, artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms are also being applied in stock trading through data analysis and pattern recognition. These algorithms are capable of speedy analysis of large volumes of data while identifying trading opportunities, computing them, and executing trades.These coded algorithms are quite accurate in their predictions of stocks. Asset management companies deploying AI have been recording accuracy of more than 80% while predicting stock price movements. Comparatively, algorithms have also been found to deliver high efficiency at lower costs. Since market sentiments play a pivotal role for traders engaged in day trading, the deployed AI can effectively analyze social media trends, news articles, and other sources of information to assess the day-to-day market sentiment. Also, by making an investment pattern analysis of where traders and investors are investing in specific assets, AI can help traders anticipate upcoming price movements and make their investment decisions accordingly. It is significant to note that AI-based trading systems currently require human oversight to manage risks and adapt to changing market conditions. Regulatory bodies also closely monitor AI-powered trading to ensure fairness and prevent market manipulation.

Stock trading with AI typically involves the following processes

1. Collecting Data: AI algorithms accumulate data from financial markets, stock market prices, trading volumes, current news, social media trends, market sentiments, and other economic indicators.
2. Scanning the collected data: The collected data is scanned and organized to remove errors and inconsistencies, ensuring its suitability for data analysis.
3. Extraction: Relevant data are extracted from the scanned data for input into the algorithms. This data includes technical indicators, fundamental metrics, market sentiment analysis, and other factors that could in any way impact stock prices.
4. Algorithm Training: Machine learning algorithms and deep learning neural networks are trained on scanned data to learn patterns, correlations, and relationships between the various factors that bring about stock price variations. These models are then optimized to make accurate predictions or trading decisions.
5. Strategy Development: Based on these trained models, trading strategies are further developed to identify buy or sell signals. Developed strategies range from simple process-based approaches to more complex algorithmic trading strategies.
6. Trade simulation/backtesting: These developed trading strategies are backtested on the primary data to evaluate their performance and reprogram them if found necessary. Backtesting brings forth the strategy's profitability and returns across the different market conditions.
7. Deployment: Once the trading strategy has been validated successfully through backtesting or trade simulation, it is deployed in live trading. AI algorithms continuously scan the real-time live market data and then execute trades completely based on the trained trading strategy.
8. Monitoring and Optimization: These AI-powered trading systems are constantly monitored for their performance, exposure to risk, and compliance with regulatory requirements. The system may also be optimized or updated to adapt to changing market conditions or simply to improve its effectiveness.
9. Risk Management: Techniques such as position sizing and portfolio diversification are usually implemented to control potential losses and also protect capital.
10. Evaluation and subsequent iteration: The performance of the AI-driven trading system is regularly evaluated against the predefined standard success models and benchmarks. All evaluations are based on the results, and adjustments are made to the trading strategies, models, or risk management rules to enhance the overall performance and profitability of the model.

This complete iterative process of data analysis, i.e., model development, its validation, deployment, and monitoring, is crucial for successful stock trading with AI, and it does require human expertise in data science, machine learning, finance, and risk management to effectively and efficiently leverage AI technologies in the financial markets.

While AI-powered stock trading offers good advantages for successful trades, such as

• Enhanced data analysis in large volumes.
• Automation in trading.
• Risk management.

It also raises concerns about the bias in algorithms, system reliability, and regulatory oversight.

We human traders, on the other hand, bring qualities like

• Intuition.
• Adaptability.
• Emotional intelligence to the table even though we may struggle to compete with AI in terms of speed, efficiency, and data processing capabilities.
• Algorithmic trading is now legal; it's just that investment firms and stock market traders are responsible for ensuring that AI is used and following the compliance rules and regulations. Compliance covers issues such as data privacy, laws designed for algorithmic trading, and enforced prohibitions on stock market manipulation.
• These regulations on AI stock trading are judicially aimed at maintaining a balance between innovation and market efficiency, along with investor protection, integrity, and overall market stability. Compliance with these regulations is deemed essential for all firms and individuals utilizing AI technologies in stock trading to operate legally, responsibly, and ethically in stock markets.
• Ethical and Responsible AI Usage: Regulatory authorities encourage all firms to adopt ethical and responsible AI practices in stock trading, which include maintaining algorithmic transparency, accountability, fairness, and the ethical implications of AI-driven decision-making in stock markets.

In May 2023, JP Morgan revealed on Investor Day that their asset management division uses AI to develop trading strategies and hedge equity portfolios and that it has more than 300 AI use cases in production. By now, even smaller banks are using this technology too. AI trading stocks is completely legal in India too, irrespective of whether you are an investment firm or a private investor.

The algorithm AI platforms utilized and the AI strategy providers have to be registered with SEBI, and an exam is mandated for the strategy providers. The profitability and return claims made by the AI stock trading providers may have to be substantiated through a Performance Validation Agency (PVA).

Just a reminder: while stock trading can be a fruitful investment, it remains a high-risk strategy subject to market risks in both cases.