LeBron James made waves Monday night when he sat courtside with his wife, Savannah, and his agent, Rich Paul of Klutch Sports, for Game 4 of the second-round playoff series between the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers. That raised eyebrows across the NBA, particularly since James can become an unrestricted free agent this summer if he declines his $51.4 million player option with the Los Angeles Lakers for the 2024-25 season.
"I started getting people in the NBA—multiple general managers—sending me my own meme back to me, saying, 'What is going on in Cleveland?'" ESPN's Brian Windhorst said on Tuesday's episode of Get Up.
Windhorst noted that James and his wife were back in Cleveland for Mother's Day, so his decision to attend the game might have been innocuous. Then again, that's rarely been the case with James throughout his NBA career.
"He's extremely strategic," Windhorst said on Unsportsmanlike on Tuesday morning. "And I wish I could tell you I knew exactly what he is doing. I don't pretend to know, but he's gotta be up to something."
James might have been trying to send a subtle message to Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell, who missed Game 4 with a calf injury. He has only one guaranteed year left on his contract, along with a $37.1 million player option in 2025-26 that he's all but certain to decline.
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This offseason, Mitchell will be eligible to sign a four-year extension that could be worth more than $200 million. If he declines to do so, NBA executives have long speculated that the Cavaliers would have to entertain trading him to avoid losing him for nothing in free agency next summer. If they do, the Lakers will be "one of the teams standing at the front of the line," according to Jason Lloyd of The Athletic.
However, the Cavaliers could try to turn the tables on the Lakers by making a run at James instead.
The Cavs already have $156.5 million in active salary on their books for next season, which puts them well above the projected $141 million salary cap. That means they'd only be able to offer James the $12.9 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception as a free agent at best—a $38.5 million discount on his max salary.
To maximize his chances of winning a championship, James theoretically could sign a one-year, minimum-salary contract with the contender of his choosing, whether it’s the Cavs or another team. That would be frowned upon by just about everyone—fans, media and the players union alike—but it's an option at his disposal, however unlikely it may be.
If James declines his player option, the Cavaliers could try to convince the Lakers to sign-and-trade him. They could offer some combination of Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, depending on what the Lakers were prioritizing in return and who James would most want to play with in Cleveland.
Unlike Damian Lillard, who tried to force his way to the Miami Heat last offseason only to get sent to the Milwaukee Bucks, James has leverage over the Lakers thanks to his player option. Enough playoff teams can create max or near-max cap space this summer—including the Philadelphia 76ers, Orlando Magic and Oklahoma City Thunder—that James could feasibly threaten to sign with one of them in free agency and the leave the Lakers empty-handed.
If the Lakers' other option is to recoup something of value via a sign-and-trade, that's preferable to losing James for nothing. However, the Cavaliers would hard-cap themselves at the $178.7 million first apron by acquiring James in a sign-and-trade, which wouldn't leave them as much flexibility to round out their roster around James and whichever of the Garland-Mitchell-Mobley-Allen quartet remained.
Since teams can now legally begin negotiating with their own free agents one day after the NBA Finals end, James and the Lakers would have nearly a week to work out a sign-and-trade before free agency officially began. However, both James and the Cavaliers would be better off if he picked up his player option as part of an opt-in-and-trade instead.
Whereas a sign-and-trade would hard-cap the Cavs at the first apron, an opt-in-and-trade would only hard-cap them at the $189.5 million second apron. That would give them nearly $11 million more in flexibility to retool their supporting cast. That's an enormous difference, and it would also grant them access to the taxpayer mid-level exception in free agency.
Again, James would have to force the Lakers' hand here by threatening to decline his option and leave them empty-handed in free agency if they don't oblige. The Cavaliers would have little trouble constructing a legal framework from a salary-matching perspective, too. It'd feature one of Garland or Mitchell and one of Mobley and Allen.
James would presumably prefer to play with another supernova scorer like Mitchell over a point guard like Garland. Frankly, the Cavs might only do a deal like this if it convinced Mitchell to sign an extension concurrently.
The Lakers would likely ask for Mobley—the versatility of Mobley next to Anthony Davis could be game-changing—but the Cavs would likely try to counter with Allen first. Then again, James might prefer the established veteran in Allen over the younger, higher-upside-but-more-raw Mobley.
Those two would be the framework of any package, but the Cavaliers also have some smaller contracts (Georges Niang, Dean Wade, Ty Jerome, Sam Merrill and Craig Porter Jr.) to include, and they could trade the No. 20 pick in this year's draft as well. The Lakers starting their post-LeBron era with Garland, Davis and one of Mobley or Allen isn't a terrible worst-case scenario, particularly if they could extract even more from Cleveland.
For the Cavaliers, this would be an all-in move. They'd be sacrificing a significant part of their potential future for a 1-2 year title window. Then again, the alternative might be figuring out what to do if (when?) Mitchell declines to sign an extension this offseason. There's no guarantee that this core will last beyond this year either way.
To be clear: James returning to the Cavaliers is not the most likely scenario this summer. He's widely expected to re-sign with the Lakers. A source told Anthony Irwin of Lakers Daily that James "loves it in L.A" and "understands his brand is boosted by playing for this team, especially if they have any success." That doesn’t sound like someone who’s particularly eager to leave.
James may be trying to plant subtle seeds of doubt in the Lakers' mind to not-so-subtly pressure them into taking a win-now swing. But if he is legitimately interested in a reunion with Cleveland, an opt-in-and-trade would be the best path for both him and the Cavs.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
